For those of you who haven't heard, and I don't know if that's possible at this point, Alex Rodriguez has been suspended for 162 games for violating the MLB's substance abuse policy. The Yankee's third baseman has long been rumored to be on the verge of suspension, and 162 games is actually less then the initial 211 game suspension. Clearly, this is a big move for Major League Baseball as they were finally able to take care of one of their biggest problems over the last year while also making progress toward elimination performance enhancing drugs from the game of baseball. While this was a resounding victory for the MLB, I'm more interested in the other effects of this suspension on the Yankees, specifically their on-filed performance this coming year. I have taken a little different stance then a big chunk of the public, and I will try to explain my reasoning as best I can.
Even though this decision looks to be a win for Major League Baseball and its leaders, the other clear winner is the New York Yankees Organization. Rodriguez has been a headache for the Yankees for awhile now. Whether its his monster contract, his rumored PED use, his on-field performance, or even his injury history, A-Rod has not been able to find a way to bring much positive publicity to the organization as of late. But even with the public headache that Rodriguez brings tamed for a bit, are the Yankees really better off? Many people point to Rodriguez's playoff performances as the reason that the team will be better off with someone else manning third base, but I don't buy it. As last years team proved, the Yankees are no longer a shoe-in for the playoffs, even with their free spending techniques. From injuries to poor performance or even just bad luck, the playoffs can't be counted on for a team like the Yankees, and I believe the Yankees would have a better shot of making the playoffs with Rodriguez manning third base. With A-Rod suspended for the 2014 season, the Yankees look to be stuck with some combination of Kelly Johnson, Eduardo Nunez, and Brendan Ryan at third base, and that is by no means a great thing. Yes those guys could have their moments, but A-Rod has a career slash of .299/.384/.558. Yes, I know that he is not nearly as good as what he used to be, but even in a down year least year he slashed .244/.348/.423 which I don't believe any of the others can be counted on to do. You might argue that the other three combined could make up for those stats but that's just not true. Rodriguez had a higher OBP and Slugging then all three replacement players, even with his down year, and Nunez was the only player to beat his average, which he only did by .016 with almost no added power that Rodriguez would bring. Heck the three replacement players had a combined WAR of 0.2 last year in a combine 312 games, while Rodriguez posted a 0.3 WAR in just 44. Did I mention it was his worst year since 1995 and could definitely play better this coming year? The new guys just wont cut it, and there aren't enough other options on the market left to look there for a viable solution, and we haven't even looked at what happens when the oft-injured Brian Roberts gets hurt again and stretches their bench even more so. Do I even have to add Derek Jeter's name to that list as well? I haven't seen many playoff teams that filled not one but two or even three infield positions with fringe major league contributors, have you? The Yankees, having dropped down to a little over $151 million in payroll for the 2014 season, will still have about $38 million to work with towards more signings but two big name pitchers would without a doubt eat that up quickly. Many people look at this as a great way for the Yankees to drop payroll, but I see it differently. Barring two major pitching signings, a good year from their reconfigured bullpen, no more injuries and a career year or two for some replacement players, the Yankees will not be a playoff team this year, and the loss of Rodriguez will be a big reason why.
Arguments? Feel free to post in the comments below and I'll be happy to answer any questions.