Mike Trout or Miguel Cabrera? Who you got?
I recently got into an argument/heated discussion over the two, and I felt this would be a good chance to get my reasons for my side of the argument out there. Many will disagree with me, and that’s ok! I just want to show you why I believe what I believe.
In recent years the argument for new school statistics has gained even more traction, and very rightly so because they work. The new player tracking statistics created for baseball are more comprehensive and effective then many of the basic baseball stats that have been used for generations. With that being said, there are values that those new stats do not pick up on, and no stat is perfect.
This brings us back to the Trout vs Cabrera argument. Miguel Cabrera has continued to dominate old school categories like batting average, homeruns and runs batted in, while Mike Trout is, without a doubt, the lovechild of sabrmetricians everywhere, has blown away the competition in the new school statistical categories in each of his first two years in the league. Trout is the once in a blue moon, 5 tool centerfielder who can seemingly do everything well. Cabrera on the other hand is the best pure hitter in the game, displaying immense power while being among the league leaders in average and on base percentage every year. They are the two best position players in the game, but they are still entirely different players. So how do you choose between the two of them?
The question that I will be answering today is: Who would you want to build a team around for the 2014 MLB season, Cabrera or Trout? I will only be using the upcoming season, because if I did multiple years into the future, the clear choice would be the much younger Trout, but I want to compare them from where they’re at now. I will also be looking at this from a GM’s perspective, flashy play and ticket sales are great and all, but I want wins and it is my job to get into, and win in the postseason.
I really want to say that this is a clear choice for me, but it’s not. They are both very good players, but with looking at what type of player I would want to carry my team to the World Series in 2014, the choice is Cabrera. His MVP titles are much deserved, and he is the most valuable player in the league.
Almost immediately I can just feel the backlash from many of you as you read this, but just try to hear me out. Try to finish the article for me and then argue with me the comment section below if you so choose.
First off, let me list the things that Trout does better then Cabrera. He plays better defense, he steals more bases, and overall just adds another element to a baseball game with his speed. Those things are hard to ignore and must be accounted for when comparing the two, but the tool that is most important to this comparison is power. It’s not that I’m ignoring Trout’s other tools, or disrespecting his good power, but Cabrera has better power, and it’s not even close.
Now, many would argue that Mike Trout’s other tools more than make up for the loss in power to Cabrera, and I would say that those other tools are great to have, and add fantastic value to Trout, but I would then ask what is harder to find in an MLP player, speed and defense or power? Power hitting infielders are a lot more value than speedy outfielders to me, and it’s not even close.
To prove my point, let’s look at the moves and signings from this winter for precedent. Corey Hart, a power hitting first baseman who didn’t set foot on a baseball diamond last year, was able to secure a $6 million deal with incentives that could push it to $13 million based solely on the fact that he had power two years ago. Ike Davis, a guy who hit .205 last year while striking out almost once every three at bats was being pursued by a few different teams on the trade market. Mark Trumbo, who hit .234 and has an on base percentage of less than .300 was traded for not one but two young, controllable, MLB ready pitchers, which are perhaps the most coveted type of players in the game. Power has huge value in today’s game as it is a vital part of any playoff bound team, and it is in short supply throughout the league. Now I’m by no means saying that Trout doesn’t have power, but what I am saying is that Cabrera’s power, combined with his hit tool, are the best in the game and of more value that Trout’s tools.
My second point is that middle of the order hitters win games, especially big games. It’s as simple as that. In the postseason, where the biggest games are played, middle of the order power hitters are the guys that get wins. All I have to do is point to the World Series MVPs over the past couple of years to make my point. David Ortiz in 2013, Pablo Sandoval in 2012, David Freese in 2011, the list goes on and on. In fact, to find the last World Series MVP without a homerun in the postseason, you have to go back to the 1978 postseason in which Bucky Dent won the award. Without one or two great middle of the order hitters, you will not have success in the postseason. I have a hard time believing the Red Sox could have won the 2013 World Series without Ortiz.
Lastly, we have to look at who is more replaceable. Obviously, it would be nearly impossible to replace either of these guys straight up, but when building a team, it would be a little easier to replace some of the things Trout does than it would be to replace what Cabrera does. With replacing either of these guys, something is going to have to be lost. With Trout, it is the power speed combination, and with Cabrera it is the extreme power with the great hit tool. When I look at the league as a whole, the amount of power hitting infielders is very top heavy. There’s Chris Davis, Robinson Cano, Adrian Beltre, David Ortiz, etc., but after those big name, franchise stars, there is a huge drop off in the power department. In order to acquire a middle of the order power hitter, you need to either sign or develop one of the best players in the game, whereas run scoring centerfielders who play above average defense are a lot easier to come by. Breakout years happen a lot more often from quick outfielders who finally gain some traction at the plate then they do for everyday players who suddenly start hitting bombs. One quick fix in a swing and a hitter could develop almost out of nowhere, but raw power doesn’t exactly develop overnight.
So once again if this were a draft of all MLB players for just the 2014 season, my first overall pick would be Miguel Cabrera, and I would take a chance on a guy from a bigger crop of quick outfielders in one of the later rounds. Power is a lot like pitching, top heavy and very valuable. Once the middle of the order power is gone, it’s not coming back. Even though he has some power, most of Trout’s supporters point to his run scoring abilities and that to me screams table setter, and that is what Trout is. He is an elite table setter. Table setters need strong hitters behind them in order to truly be successful. That’s where Cabrera comes in. Guys like Trout who can get on base and do things with their legs will come and go while guys like Cabrera drive them in consistently each and every year.
I firmly believe that Pujols and Hamilton have the potential to be more valuable to the Angels this coming year. Should Trout flop or get injured, the Angels could string together some guys to replace his runs, but should Pujols and Hamilton flop for a second straight year, the Angels will not make the postseason, no matter how much their pitching improves. The same goes for the Tigers. There is a reason that the Tigers were a much better team than the Angels last year, and yes, their pitching staff made a big difference, but even more importantly, the guys in the middle of the lineup struggled for the Angels last year while the middle guys for the Tigers produced.
Though I’m not saying that Cabrera is necessarily better than Trout, a comparison that is nearly impossible to make, I am saying that Cabrera is more valuable to his team than Trout. It is a distinction between the two that I think needs to be made.
The way it’s shaping up, the debate over the AL MVP will once again happen at the end of the 2014 season, and if both players once again play how they are capable of playing, Cabrera should once again come out on top.
Until next winter, Cabrera is the pick, and is the league’s number one player.
I recently got into an argument/heated discussion over the two, and I felt this would be a good chance to get my reasons for my side of the argument out there. Many will disagree with me, and that’s ok! I just want to show you why I believe what I believe.
In recent years the argument for new school statistics has gained even more traction, and very rightly so because they work. The new player tracking statistics created for baseball are more comprehensive and effective then many of the basic baseball stats that have been used for generations. With that being said, there are values that those new stats do not pick up on, and no stat is perfect.
This brings us back to the Trout vs Cabrera argument. Miguel Cabrera has continued to dominate old school categories like batting average, homeruns and runs batted in, while Mike Trout is, without a doubt, the lovechild of sabrmetricians everywhere, has blown away the competition in the new school statistical categories in each of his first two years in the league. Trout is the once in a blue moon, 5 tool centerfielder who can seemingly do everything well. Cabrera on the other hand is the best pure hitter in the game, displaying immense power while being among the league leaders in average and on base percentage every year. They are the two best position players in the game, but they are still entirely different players. So how do you choose between the two of them?
The question that I will be answering today is: Who would you want to build a team around for the 2014 MLB season, Cabrera or Trout? I will only be using the upcoming season, because if I did multiple years into the future, the clear choice would be the much younger Trout, but I want to compare them from where they’re at now. I will also be looking at this from a GM’s perspective, flashy play and ticket sales are great and all, but I want wins and it is my job to get into, and win in the postseason.
I really want to say that this is a clear choice for me, but it’s not. They are both very good players, but with looking at what type of player I would want to carry my team to the World Series in 2014, the choice is Cabrera. His MVP titles are much deserved, and he is the most valuable player in the league.
Almost immediately I can just feel the backlash from many of you as you read this, but just try to hear me out. Try to finish the article for me and then argue with me the comment section below if you so choose.
First off, let me list the things that Trout does better then Cabrera. He plays better defense, he steals more bases, and overall just adds another element to a baseball game with his speed. Those things are hard to ignore and must be accounted for when comparing the two, but the tool that is most important to this comparison is power. It’s not that I’m ignoring Trout’s other tools, or disrespecting his good power, but Cabrera has better power, and it’s not even close.
Now, many would argue that Mike Trout’s other tools more than make up for the loss in power to Cabrera, and I would say that those other tools are great to have, and add fantastic value to Trout, but I would then ask what is harder to find in an MLP player, speed and defense or power? Power hitting infielders are a lot more value than speedy outfielders to me, and it’s not even close.
To prove my point, let’s look at the moves and signings from this winter for precedent. Corey Hart, a power hitting first baseman who didn’t set foot on a baseball diamond last year, was able to secure a $6 million deal with incentives that could push it to $13 million based solely on the fact that he had power two years ago. Ike Davis, a guy who hit .205 last year while striking out almost once every three at bats was being pursued by a few different teams on the trade market. Mark Trumbo, who hit .234 and has an on base percentage of less than .300 was traded for not one but two young, controllable, MLB ready pitchers, which are perhaps the most coveted type of players in the game. Power has huge value in today’s game as it is a vital part of any playoff bound team, and it is in short supply throughout the league. Now I’m by no means saying that Trout doesn’t have power, but what I am saying is that Cabrera’s power, combined with his hit tool, are the best in the game and of more value that Trout’s tools.
My second point is that middle of the order hitters win games, especially big games. It’s as simple as that. In the postseason, where the biggest games are played, middle of the order power hitters are the guys that get wins. All I have to do is point to the World Series MVPs over the past couple of years to make my point. David Ortiz in 2013, Pablo Sandoval in 2012, David Freese in 2011, the list goes on and on. In fact, to find the last World Series MVP without a homerun in the postseason, you have to go back to the 1978 postseason in which Bucky Dent won the award. Without one or two great middle of the order hitters, you will not have success in the postseason. I have a hard time believing the Red Sox could have won the 2013 World Series without Ortiz.
Lastly, we have to look at who is more replaceable. Obviously, it would be nearly impossible to replace either of these guys straight up, but when building a team, it would be a little easier to replace some of the things Trout does than it would be to replace what Cabrera does. With replacing either of these guys, something is going to have to be lost. With Trout, it is the power speed combination, and with Cabrera it is the extreme power with the great hit tool. When I look at the league as a whole, the amount of power hitting infielders is very top heavy. There’s Chris Davis, Robinson Cano, Adrian Beltre, David Ortiz, etc., but after those big name, franchise stars, there is a huge drop off in the power department. In order to acquire a middle of the order power hitter, you need to either sign or develop one of the best players in the game, whereas run scoring centerfielders who play above average defense are a lot easier to come by. Breakout years happen a lot more often from quick outfielders who finally gain some traction at the plate then they do for everyday players who suddenly start hitting bombs. One quick fix in a swing and a hitter could develop almost out of nowhere, but raw power doesn’t exactly develop overnight.
So once again if this were a draft of all MLB players for just the 2014 season, my first overall pick would be Miguel Cabrera, and I would take a chance on a guy from a bigger crop of quick outfielders in one of the later rounds. Power is a lot like pitching, top heavy and very valuable. Once the middle of the order power is gone, it’s not coming back. Even though he has some power, most of Trout’s supporters point to his run scoring abilities and that to me screams table setter, and that is what Trout is. He is an elite table setter. Table setters need strong hitters behind them in order to truly be successful. That’s where Cabrera comes in. Guys like Trout who can get on base and do things with their legs will come and go while guys like Cabrera drive them in consistently each and every year.
I firmly believe that Pujols and Hamilton have the potential to be more valuable to the Angels this coming year. Should Trout flop or get injured, the Angels could string together some guys to replace his runs, but should Pujols and Hamilton flop for a second straight year, the Angels will not make the postseason, no matter how much their pitching improves. The same goes for the Tigers. There is a reason that the Tigers were a much better team than the Angels last year, and yes, their pitching staff made a big difference, but even more importantly, the guys in the middle of the lineup struggled for the Angels last year while the middle guys for the Tigers produced.
Though I’m not saying that Cabrera is necessarily better than Trout, a comparison that is nearly impossible to make, I am saying that Cabrera is more valuable to his team than Trout. It is a distinction between the two that I think needs to be made.
The way it’s shaping up, the debate over the AL MVP will once again happen at the end of the 2014 season, and if both players once again play how they are capable of playing, Cabrera should once again come out on top.
Until next winter, Cabrera is the pick, and is the league’s number one player.